The Box Office 2023, Venice, and Blockbusters in 2024
In which we look at the last year in film, the last week in Venice, and the next months in movies.
The Box Office 2023 (EW)
The last major blockbusters of 2023 rounded out yeah with some surprising earnings. Paul King’s previous masterpieces, Paddington and Paddington 2 earned $282m and $228m respectively. His new film, Wonka, an origins movie about everyone’s favourite eccentric venture-capitalist magician, (which had low expectations, but charmed reviewers with its songs and performances) is ending its stunning run with $587m, and still holding firm in the British Box Office charts. For a $125m musical, that $587m is a stunning take, exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros’ other offering over Christmas, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (terrible title), just about didn’t bomb, dragging its heels to a $429m ending. For something dead-on-arrival, known to be the end of a franchise, closing DC’s ill-fated ‘Extended Universe’, and that only earned $40m on its opening weekend, this is a surprisingly good result.
However, these tales of surprising success for cinema over Christmas are telling. Cinema had a rough year. Yes, it had the Barbenheimer phenomenon, but aside from these successes and a few blockbusters that kept to expectations, it was a rough year for the cinematic box-office; just as it was getting back on its feet with some big successes in 2022 and 2021.
To make a long story short, throughout the 2010s, cinemas were propped up by the reliable billion-dollar blockbuster. Disney was able to reliably reap profits of $400-700m on most of its blockbuster offerings. Almost every major animated project and photorealist film they offered made nearly or more than $1bn dollars. We, as a society, hate on billionaires, but we love making movies into them, figuratively. In 2019/20, when The Rise of Skywalker barely hit the billion-dollar mark, that became widespread panic-inducing news for the industry.
Broadly speaking, most movies cost double their reported budgets, usually due to marketing. Marketing a $200m movie costs roughly $200m again. So, when a Marvel movie arrives, costing $200m, it needs to make at least $500-600m to begin profiting.
This is why Everything Everywhere All At Once, costing a mere $25m to make, was said to have kicked the arse of Dr Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which cost a whopping $294.5m (about £1K of which was spent on having me on set with a megaphone, to make sure extras ran away from a big CGI monster on time). Everything Everywhere made $147m on a tiny budget with next to no marketing costs, relying on word of mouth, film fans, and then surfed awards season to even more audience love. Dr Strange’s sequel made a $955.8m, a stunning amount, but it’s definitely the less creative of the two multiverse movies that graced cinemas in 2022.
All of this context brings us to 2023’s box office chaos. Let’s start with the successes! Barbie was the biggest movie of the year, (Warner Bros, C: $145m / B.O: $1.446bn), followed by The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal, C: $100m / B.O: $1.36bn), and then of course, Oppenheimer (Warner Bros, C: $100m / B.O: $959m).
What can be said about the Barbienheimer phenomenon that hasn’t been said already? The fact is, double-bill hype or not, a courtroom-drama/political biopic about a physicist made just under a billion dollars last year, doing so at pace, paired with a comedy that exhausted the world supply of pink paint that raised sophisticated questions about what it means to be alive, and the importance of feminism and mental health. It had people who hadn’t been to the cinema for years selling out arthouses and multiplexes around the world.
The most successful animation of the year, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, arrived to mixed reviews but delivered a good time. It’s messy, but Chris Pratt proved to be the exact safe pair of uncharismatic hands needed to characterise the most famous video game character of all time, who has no actual personality. Was it an advert for twelve different Mario games? Yes. Was it put together with pure love and a shocking lack of cynicism from the Illumination team? I guess so.
Now this is where things get interesting. Disney’s only big success last year was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney / Marvel Studios, C: $250m / B.O: $848.6m). Suffering in development hell after the firing and rehiring of James Gunn, this is one of the darkest, bleakest Marvel movies ever. It did as well as the previous Guardians movies but its been the only big box office success for Disney this year. The live-action The Little Mermaid pulled in a respectable $569.6m, but elsewhere, blockbuster after blockbuster struggled.
All of DC’s offerings suffered. This is partly down to a damaged brand and clued-in fans knowing that the franchise was winding down as James Gunn is restarting the franchise in 2025. Shazam: Fury of the Gods made $134m, The Flash $271m, Blue Beetle $130m, and the previously mentioned Aquaman sequel only pulled in $429m. These are all movies that cost around $150-250m to make, before the marketing costs were added. Losses everywhere.
This is just a sample of the blockbuster market. Awards season in 2022 saw some worthy films that would normally get awards-boosted income like The Fabelmans and Tàr suffer. Lots of smaller movies suffered next-to-no audience. Costly movies lost money. Low-cost movies lost money.
There were just a few, strange exceptions to this overall rule. AppleTV+ are in the habit of permitting cinema runs to some of their costly movies, and they have been finding audiences in the cinema as well as at home. Ridley Scott’s Napoleon cost up to $200m, and brought in $219m from a limited cinema release. Martin Scorcesse’s Killers of the Flower Moon costed $200m. It didn’t make its money back from the box office, but it wasn’t meant to. It’s $156.8m theatrical-take was on top of the Apple and Paramount paying over the odds to own and then distribute it. The confidence of AppleTV+ playing on the cinema turf is quite something. Netflix only tend to dip their toes with stunted releases for 2022’s Glass Onion and 2023’s Chicken Run Dawn of the Nugget.
The streamers are in trouble too. They’ve spent their COVID war chest because, when production resumed, COVID precautions were costly, and when people started going back out more, they downgraded or cut down streaming plans. Their response has been to try and claw money back via increased costs or cheaper ad-supported tiers, something derided by audiences. Netflix have all these fantastic movies that deserve to be seen on screens bigger than your living room, but their stubbornness is costing them, and costing cinemas.
Cineworld found itself in administration last year. It owns a lot of chains in the US and the UK, and relies on a subscription service and customer loyalty. Value for money plays well when there’s… value, but can they sustain a loyal userbase when there’s fewer films being released this year due to the strikes? Furthermore, the high-end experience of Everyman made record profits.
It’s an uneven picture overall, but cinemas are crying out for another Barbie or Oppenheimer moment, or even a Top Gun: Maverick moment. Something that sustains audiences across the board and those who don’t regularly go to the cinema. It’s hard to see what, if any of this year’s releases offer this.
As said, smaller releases suffer as much as, if not more than the big budget beasts. The problem is, if you can’t take risks on a small-budget movie, you probably can’t take risks on bigger-budget films either. The box office of 2023 survived on a few massive risks. The box office of the future will depend on the ability of producers to have the foresight to take risks on equally unique rising voices, and to give them the room to fail to eventually help the next Barbienheimer make another best day ever one day.
All box office figures are taken from Wikipedia / Box Office Mojo, and are broadly accurate at time of writing.
An Incomplete Itinerary to Venice (VB)
Get ready for next year’s Carnevale season now.
My husband surprised me with a holiday to Italy, and now it feels like perfect corporate synergy that our first stop was Venice for 3 days, as I’ve recently written about it in my From Russia with Love review. The timing was impeccable, as Italy is a highly Catholic country, and we arrived just in time for carnival festivities to kick off in earnest - but most of the recommendations below are universal timing-wise.
A view of the San Marco campanile from the island of San Giorgio Maggiore.
Public transport
As Venice is a city full of islands and canals, its waterways are the fastest way to get around, provided you know where you want to go. There are various boat-based services, primarily ACTV’s water bus. There are bus stops dotted around the perimeter of Venice’s main island, and no doubt the mainland (but I can’t confirm as we didn’t spend any time there except to leave the airport).
The alternative is walking. If walking is your preference, get started on your quad workouts. All the bridges over the canals add up, and very few of them have ramps that smooth over the inclines and declines. That said, if you want to get to know your neighbourhood, it’s eminently doable.
Historical places of importance
The Republic of Venice existed for more than a millennium, and, unlike Venice’s neighbours, was a genuine democratic institution. While cities like Milan or Florence were dominated by one family’s influence, the Doge of Venice was elected by his peers. Though the Doge was not powerful, with all the ruling done by committees and councils, they were treated well, so this was still a coveted position.
A visit to the Doge’s palace is a must-do, particularly for those who played Assassin’s Creed 2. Ezio’s mission to prevent the death of the doge gives you an excellent sneak preview of what you’ll find on the ground. Similarly, the basilica next door is worth a visit, to be dazzled by the golden mosaics, or walk on its balcony for a view of the piazza. Finally, the bell tower on the piazza across from both, rounds out the required visits. Some of them can be bundled and bought in advance, to give access to shorter queues.
Carnevale season
The wearing of masks used to be more of a year-round experience, and the tourist trade certainly makes its money off constant sales. Officially, carnevale season begins two weeks before Lent starts, which is movable, and therefore any costumes you consider wearing should be weather-flexible. And it’s well worth considering wearing a costume, as one of the social calendar highlights is the costume contest.
Costumes that stood out for not being from a Spirit Halloween store, but also not traditional Renaissance fare.
Another special occasion is the Festa della Marie, a pageant for young ladies with ties to the city. Their presentation on the main stage of the San Marco Piazza felt akin to the Miss World/Universe competitions we’ve seen spoofed in movies like Drop Dead Gorgeous or Miss Congeniality, with a short interview section completely at the whim of the host - oh, and in Italian.
Venetian specialities
You may not have heard of Murano glass, but you’re certain to have seen at least Chinese knock-offs. The island of Murano is only a 20-minute water bus ride away from San Marco Piazza, and many factories, alongside a museum chronicling the history of glass-making in Venice, demonstrate the near-limitless creativity of local artisans.
And you might not have had cichéti before, but you’ll have a good idea if you had tapas. Being an island city, seafood is a staple too. My recommendations for cicheti are sarde in saor and baccalà (salt cod) on bread for a crash course in local fish.
Have you been to Venice before? Where’s your favourite cicheti spot, or do you prefer full-course meals?
An Incomplete List of… anticipated movies in 2024
Let’s be real, the industry is very much struggling with the aftermath of the writers’ and screen actor’s guild strikes from last year. We give these important contributors to the movie industry their props - organised labour means improved conditions. But that does make picking the gems for the upcoming year harder. We’ve tried our hand anyway.
1. DUNE: PART TWO
In 2021, the most invigorating and innovative blockbuster since The Dark Knight was released. Dune (Part One) is back in cinemas for a few days in preparation for Dune: Part Two and is worth seeing again; if not just to remind yourself of the story and characters that Denis Villeneuve has brought to life with aplomb and wonder, but to behold the scale of what he’s doing with this story.
Dune Part Two boasts a cast even more impressive than the original. Florence Pugh, Austin Butler, and Christopher Walken are joining the ensemble. There will be riding of massive sandworms. There will be battles on a scale that’ll make Lord of the Rings look intimate. There will be dreams. There will be spice. There will be Dune. There will be non-Sting Feyd-Rauther. Dune deserved Best Picture. The source material in part two is even more dense but could be even better.
2. KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Rise, Dawn, and War For Planet of the Apes have revived a franchise that everyone thought was confined to history; but the worthy reboot trilogy where Andy Serkis has pioneered motion-capture even further was moving and surprising. The return of the apes is being helmed by Wes Ball of The Maze Runner trilogy, and the dailies from Kingdom have been judged to be good enough that Nintendo is now trusting a live-action Legend of Zelda adaptation to Ball.
Kingdom looks to be set many years after the apes out-survived humanity in their evolutionary war. It is filled with imagery from the original 1968 classic, with apes on horseback and humans cast out and regressing. This will be the first Apes film to be filling in a completely new story in some time (the new trilogy all-but replicated and replaced the convoluted plots of Escape from, Conquest of and Battle for the Planet of the Apes from 1971, ‘72, and ‘73). This could be interesting.
3. DEADPOOL AND WOLVERINE
The Marvel Cinematic Universe is basically taking a year off, apart from integrating Deadpool from the X-Men universe with this Deadpool and Wolverine movie that Ryan Reynolds has been dreaming of for years. Ryan Reynolds is back and Hugh Jackman is back reprising Logan / Wolverine. Quite frankly, that should be enough.
The trailer from the Superbowl has made it clear that this will be off-the-wall, but a serious and exciting instalment in a franchise that’s lost its way. The Time Variance Authority from the Loki TV shows is back too, and it looks like a long list of cameos is on the cards. Furthermore, it looks like Deadpool is going to be fun rather than just plain chaotic. Bring on the madness.
4. WICKED LITTLE LETTERS
Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley previously co-starred in The Lost Daughter but never met. Now we’re going to be treated to them in a cat-and-mouse antagonistic comedy in which some obscene and violent letters become the source of controversy, investigation, conflict, and maybe even friendship.
After the majority of British comedy got together for Wonka over Christmas, just as many are joining this romp. Timothy Spall, Joanna Scanlan, Gemma Jones, Lolly Adafope, Hugh Skinner, Jason Watkins and more. With foul language flying around faster than Deadpool’s butt, this looks like another laugh-out-loud comedy that cinema is doing well with this year (American Fiction and The Holdovers also had me laughing throughout recently, comedy is BACK in cinema!).
5. CHALLENGERS
One of the films to have its release date shoved unceremoniously out of awards season due to the strikes is Challengers. Zendeya, Josh O’COnner, and Mike Faist star in this twisted romantic sports comedy-drama, where a love triangle between two major tennis stars playing against each other at the insistence of the grand slam champion’s wife.
Amazon and Warner Bros have been fighting over this one since the strikes, but have confidence in it and have fought to get it a cinema release. It looks original, funny and sexy. Luca Guadagnino struck a chord with Call Me By Your Name and this looks totally different but equally unique. Maybe this can be a tennis movie that doesn’t result in violence at the Academy Awards.
6. MOANA 2
The industry was very much taken by surprise when Robert Iger dropped the announcement of an animated Moana sequel in cinemas by November in the 2024 Q1 earnings call. You’d be forgiven for mistaking this for the live action remake that was fast-tracked (starring the animation’s Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, but not the animation’s Auli’i Cravalho, who instead was also one of the executive producers next to her bulky co-star).
No, as Disney Tourist Blog has chronicled, this is the former Disney+ series, that has outperformed expectations to be bumped up to a full movie instead. That kind of financial vote for confidence makes me hopeful too in an industry that doesn’t like to bank on risks any longer. More Moana sounds a bit more inspired than Moana again.
As many freelancers tried to warn audiences last year, the strikes from 2023 are going to result in fewer films in 2024. Do try giving them a chance. We’ll check back into the release schedule for when we know what quarters 3/4 look like, and hope to shine a light on some of the smaller releases. Support cinema. Keep your local arthouses and multiplexes alive. They’re going to need you this year.